Luck to Indianapolis…Not so fast!

A lot of people have projected Andrew Luck to be drafted by the Indianapolis Colts. He’s often been compared to Peyton Manning by the media, and “draft guru” Mike Mayock has even gone so far to say that the Colts should draft him if given the opportunity.

Mayock said, “If you assume Peyton's healthy you still have to control value. You either trade it. Or you draft it. You control it. Look at a couple of years ago with Eli Manning. The Manning family said we're not going to go to San Diego. What did the (San Diego Chargers) do? They still drafted him (as the first overall pick in 2004). They made the trade (to the New York Giants) afterwards (for No. 4 Philip Rivers). And they got value for the pick.”

Mayock makes a good point, unless you realize that he is a 4th year junior that has a year of college eligibility left. This is one of several issues that make the Luck to Indianapolis move less likely than most believe.

Issue 1: The Indianapolis Colts Provides a Limited Market for Luck

Indianapolis is located in the lovely state of Indiana. It’s a fine state, one of my favorites in fact, but it’s not exactly a top tier market for a young superstar. According to the 2010 consensus, Indiana is the 14th most populated state in America with middling population growth. Compared to another franchise city in need of a quarterback, picked totally at random… say Miami (the 4th most populated state and one of the fastest growing); it appears that there may be more appealing markets for a young superstar quarterback. If Andrew wants to maximize his marketing potential and become the biggest star he can, he needs to go to a big market.

Just in case you are wondering how important a big market really is, ask yourself the following questions:

Who is the better quarterback, Tony Romo or Matt Ryan?

Who do you see in more commercials, web advertisements, on TMZ, dating Jessica
Simpson, and in the news in general, Tony Romo or Matt Ryan?

Location, location, location! The number of people that will be buying his sneaker, lunchbox, and candy bar WILL factor into what teams Luck wants to play for.

Issue 2: The Colts Organization is a Mess

Money aside, let’s look at the Colts franchise for a moment and assess their potential to help Luck to superstardom. The “geniuses” behind that Colts franchise are sitting with a 0-9 record since Peyton Manning went down with a neck injury, and since Luck will be replacing Manning he won’t benefit from his potential return.

Owner Jim Irsay turned to twitter to resolve the quarterback issue early in the season, resulting in a 4 million dollar contract for freshly retired Kerry Collins. Collins threw 2 TDs, 1 Int, went 48-98 for 481 yards in three games before finding himself on the benched and injured.

Vice President Bill Polian has been the culprit behind a string of bad draft picks over the past five years, and his decision to build only through the draft has exacerbated the situation. They are ranked 23rd in rushing despite drafting two first round running backs and 7 offensive linemen in the past five years. Defensively, they are currently ranked 24th and 31st against the pass and run, respectively. Admittedly, the offense is making the defense looks worse than it really is, but the apparent fact that this defense is used to playing with a lead does not make it an ideal match for a rookie quarterback.

Head coach Jim Caldwell could be on the hotseat, with recent comments by owner Jim Irsay being dissected by the media. Irsay has recently said, "One thing people can't evaluate with Jim is how hard he works, how he prepares the team, how he does have plenty of fire in his belly. At this point, it's something where I'm not into votes of confidences. I don't have any non-votes of confidence.” Not to over analyze that statement, but it appears as if he is saying that he does not think any other coach could do better with such a bad team - not exactly a ringing endorsement.

Media over-analysis aside, the Colts look nothing like an NFL team. The fact that Manning is hurt is a poor excuse for allowing a zero win season, something that is highly possible at this point. Since Caldwell is the coach and the responsibility falls to him, so will the ax.

So in summation, they have an owner who makes wild decisions based on twitter feedback, a draft czar that has struggled to improve the roster in the past half decade, and a head coach that will be shell-shocked after this season - if he’s around at all. The Colt's record proves that Tony Dungy, Bill Polian, Jim Irsay, Howard Mudd, Jim Caldwell and the rest of the recent and current Colt’s staff are highly overrated – they’re only good at coaching a Peyton Manning lead team. This is equivalent to saying you are great at making supermodels jealous, but only when you have Gisele Bundchen sitting on your lap and nibbling on your earlobe. Losses to Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Tennessee and a 62-7 annihilation by the Saints put the exclamation point on the previous statement. Unfortunately for the Colts, Andrew Luck is not Peyton Manning and it appears as if they may be running out of luck…WHAT A PUN!

Issue 3: The Colts are Built to Win Now.

The Colts have been winning for a while now and up until this season it seemed like they would be contenders for the next few years. Yet, unlike any team in recollection, the loss of a single player has not only tanked an entire season but embarrassed everyone involved in the situation.

As a team that’s built to win, they are made up mostly of veteran players. The starters average roughly 27.5 years old, which means that Luck would be developing out of sync with the rest of the team. While this is not necessarily a bad thing, the fact that this team is custom tailored to fit Peyton Manning means that it will require personnel adjustments to fit a rookie quarterback - adjustments that will prove costly and complicated.

Since the Colt’s have made it a priority to resign veteran players, in order to stay annual contenders, they were often being forced to overpay their biggest names. Because of this, most of their older players have large contracts with significant amounts of guaranteed money, which will make any restructuring difficult and limit any trade value.

Offensively, their veteran receiving options are all on the wrong side of 30, and their running backs are injury prone with limited upside potential. Their offensive line is currently being manned by players literally signed off the street, which goes along with the theme that the Colt's have serious management issues.

While these offensive components were successful with Manning under center, so far his replacements have failed to achieve anything you could consider “success.” In fact, considering the fact that the Colt's roster has remained largely unchange over the years only emphasizes my point about how Andrew Luck is not Peyton Manning.

Issue 4: Only a Fool Would Want to Try to Replace Peyton Manning.

Aaron Rodgers had to win a super bowl with near flawlessness to get the Favre monkey off his back…and he was not even supposed to be as good as he is. Drafted 24th overall and sat behind a legend that resented his presence for years, Rodgers had limited expectations as Favre’s replacement. “Who,” the average peanuts-for-brains football analyst would posit, “could ever replace such a legend?”

Now consider how difficult that it would be to replace the greatest quarterback of all time. Not the greatest iron man. Not the biggest winner. Not the fastest, strongest, physical freak to ever play the game. The greatest quarterback to step on a football field in the NFL in the new millenium. The perfect quarterback that not only dominated the position but rewrote what it could be. The only player who can actually say that their team doesn't have a fighting chance without him, and be completely correct.

Unless your name is Muhammad Tyson Gretzky Lebron Taylor Bruce Lee, replacing this player is more than just a daunting challenge. Its a fool's errand. Trying to replace Peyton Manning means that you will never hear your name mentioned in the media without his name lurking behind the next sentence. No one in their right mind would want to expose themselves to the starlight that will burn eternal for Peyton Manning in Indianapolis. Because it won't matter what what Andrew Luck does because:

Issue 5: Repeat: Andrew Luck is Not Peyton Manning

To be fair, he could be even better than Peyton Manning.

I could also have bowel movements that smell like bakery fresh muffins, but let’s try to stick to reality.

Andrew Luck’s sterling college career and his draft status aside; no one walks in and wills a team to win (don't start about Tebow, no one wants to hear it!). Expectations need to be kept in check. Cam Newton is a walking record breaker and a man among boys on the football field, and his Panthers at 2-6.

It makes all the sense in the world to draft Andrew Luck and develop him as successor. However, Andrew is no different than any other first overall pick; just because he has so much upside does not mean he won't struggle out of the gate. All first overall quarterbacks in recent history have struggled with injury, consistency, scheme and coaching; usually because they are going to an awful team.

In fact, the only standout from this group that hasn’t found himself hurt, ridiculed, and on the wrong side of a lot of contest was Eli Manning. Why is he so different? Well, he is a Manning, a unique half man/half horse breed…wait, I got off track. The real reason he has done so well is because went to a good organization with lots of talentm and one willing to incorporate his input into their strategy. How was he so fortunate to have landed in New York? HE PICKED NEW YORK HIMSELF! The Charger’s drafted him despite his warnings, and when he told them to get lost, they buckled and traded him to New York. Years later, he is an elite QB with a championship ring on his finger, playing in the fourth biggest city in the world. Meanwhile, the Charger’s are still playoff virgins and their franchise quarterback has never received the proper credit for his toughness, skills and leadership.

The evidence is here and the facts are hard; the best quarterbacks with the biggest names really care where they play. They have a say and use every inch of leverage to get their way. So the Colt’s better start talking to Andrew now, because these issues make it seem like luck isn’t on their side…ANOTHER PUN! I’M ON FIRE!