Another One Bites the Dust?

The Steelers weren’t able to free up enough cap space to franchise tag their 25 year old deep threat and have left him with on a $2.7 million, 1st round restricted free agent tender. People in-the-know around Pittsburgh seem fearful that Wallace will get signed away in 2012, while the majority of Steelers fans are still just trying to stomach the release of fan favorite Hines Wards. I would be surprised to see Wallace escape the clutches of a team with a late first round pick and some salary cap space, but I seem to be in the minority among the media and fellow NFL fans.

Am I just too much of a contrarian for my own good these days?

Well, let’s consider the three most important aspects of this potential nightmare for the Steelers.

How good is Mike Wallace really?



I could spit a lot of stats at you, but I will leave you to do your own research. Here are the important bits:

He is only 25 years old and has a sterling track record both on the field and off. He has no major injuries on his resume, decent height (6’0) and weight (200lb) for one of the fastest receivers in the league and decent hands for a deep threat. He has been called a one trick pony numerous times, but racing 50 yards downfield and catching a football in mid-sprint is one heckuva trick. He isn’t a true no. 1 receiver at this point in his career, but he offers the youth, the versatility to work out of the backfield and the ability to give opposing special teams nightmares in the return game. Realistically, he is probably a top 20 receiver at this point and with so much football ahead of him he would be one of the most sought after receivers if he were a free agent.

Is he really worth a first round pick?



Wallace is certainly worth the time and the attention, but is he worth the first round pick that the Steelers would get if he were signed away? This is about the most subjective part of the analysis, but in a vain attempt to remain objective let’s just compare Wallace to other first round receivers over the past decade.




There have been 49 in all and you can see that wide receiver classes aren’t all born equally. 2008 featured no wide receivers taken in the first round and some receiver draft classes featured almost all “busts”. I did my best to rate out the receivers by their career achievements made on their draft team and elsewhere, and to summarize the reasons for a “BUST” label. Some of these are arguable, but the main point here is that approximately 22 of these players failed to live up to the high expectations of being a first round pick. If you discount the 2009-2011 draft classes that are simply too new to really evaluate (but I admit are some darn impressive draft classes) then the bust percentage is 57% (22 of 38). If you believe I'm trying to cherry pick data then simply include them, but the bust percentage is still 45%. That’s almost half! HALF!

So is a proven commodity like Mike Wallace, who is entering his prime after spending years learning from a potential future hall of famer in Hines Ward, as valuable as the average first round pick receiver on this list?



Definitely.

Is he worth the big bucks?



If this was 2010 then this wouldn’t even be a discussion, but after the new CBA limited rookie salaries to half as much as they have been in previous years it is a major discussion point. Wallace would have to be given a significant contract in order to pry him away from Pittsburgh, with his first year base salary needing to be well over $10 million. Additionally, a 4-6 year contract (to lock him up until his age 29-31 seasons, which is old age for receivers) would have likely average anywhere from 7-9 million annually.

Just today Bills WR Stevie Johnson (age 25) signed a 5 year pact worth $35 million. Using this as a rough base, let’s say that Wallace would require a 5 year, $40 million dollar contract that would essentially tie him in as their no 1. receiver. This is where things get tricky. With that much committed to Wallace, the team would be relatively limited in spending at the receiver position going forward and they would be more or less forced to rely on Wallace as their top receiver. Wallace doesn’t have the build, height or skill set of a typical no 1. target, but try telling that to DeSean Jackson or Steve Smith.

Meanwhile, with a late first round pick and for a 1/4th of the salary cap investment, a player just as good or even better than Wallace could be had, you just have to draft him.



Even with all the major topics laid out, this issue still doesn't seem to have an obvious answer. It will ultimately come down to what teams in the latter half of the first round have both the cap space and the need for a deep threat.

I can see almost any team from Cincinnati (at pick 21) and on as potential suitors for Wallace, with Cleveland, New England and Baltimore as the teams that make the most sense. With Desean Jackson, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker franchise tagged for 2012 and Steve Johnson officially off the market, Wallace's stock is on the way up. I think someone is going to make a play for Wallace during free agency, but who and whether or not that have the cajones to outbid the Steelers for him, remains the big question.