The 2011 NFL Draft Review

I am going to show my pick, the pick of Rotoworld’s Evan Silvia, and give any thoughts

1. Carolina (2-14):
My Pick: Cam Newton QB Auburn
Evan Silvia: Cam Newton QB Auburn
Actual Pick: Cam Newton QB Auburn
My Thoughts: Well, Cam is, “happy to put a cap on the bottle.” And after many sleepless nights, he is going on vacation! This pick makes sense and I don’t see anyone else other than potentially Blaine Gabbert getting picked here. However, it didn’t take long for Newton to scare fans. He didn’t say that he was happy to get to work, or looking forward to next season. He is excited for: vacation.

2. Denver (4-12):
M: Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
E: Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
A: Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
My Thoughts: Between Ayers (who admittedly looks like a bust) and a healthy Elvis Dumervil, I suppose it makes sense to get another pass rusher. And it makes even more sense to take a 4-3 lineman when you run a 3-4 defense. This kid better be just as good as everyone is making him out to be, because they are picking for value and not need here.

I stink already. That didn’t take long.

3. Buffalo (4-12):
M: Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
E: Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
A: Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
My Thoughts: This is a great pick. Versatile and talented, he should help revive the worst rushing defense in the league. However, passing on Gabbert here is a mind numbing decision; since Gabbert is considered by some to be the top QB of the draft. The Bills have committed themselves to another losing season, but put a can’t miss piece in place for the future. It was nice for Deion Sanders to ask him, immediately after being picked, “your dad is dead, and your mom just died, and Alabama is being ravaged by tornados. How do you feel?” What an dummy.

4. Cincinnati (4-12):
M: A.J. Green WR Georgia
E: Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
A: A.J. Green WR Georgia
My Thoughts: Chad OchoCinco just tweeted this week that he was upset with Marvin Lewis and saddened about what he is hearing. Yeah, hearing that I was getting traded would make me sad too, especially since it means that I have the financial security of a mercenary. Green has the type of top flight potential that a playoff contender requires, great pick.

5. Arizona (5-11):
M: Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
E: Robert Quinn LB N. Carolina
A: Patrick Peterson CB LSU
My Thoughts: Man, Mike Mayock loves to lie. He talks some serious bull. Besides saying, not providing proof however, that he called the first four, he now says that the Cardinals are going to try to compete with a vertern QB like Marc Bulger. I don’t understand how he rules out taking Mallett or Kaepernick in the second round, but ok. Peterson is too big to play in space effectively but can dominate in press coverage. And while most think his future is at free safety, he should still be able to step in as a start immediately. Their obvious QB woes has me less than impressed with this pick, but he handled the awful situation with Leinart well, so I trust he is making the right decision.

6. Cleveland (5-11): Traded to Falcons
M: Julio Jones WR Alabama.
E: A.J. Green WR Georgia
A: Julio Jones WR Alabama.
My Thoughts: Yeah, they have been talking about this for a while. I like the pick, but the price to get him is BIG. In fact, moving 21 spaces to get a player at 6 is more than brave, its retarded. Their 2nd, 4th, and 2012 1st and 4th for Jones means that 2012 is gonna be a boom or bust year. They have to win, they cannot afford to whiff with all the players coming into old age and contract years. There is a reason no team would do this; its just too costly.

This could have gone better.

7. San Francisco (6-10):
M: Patrick Peterson CB LSU
E: Patrick Peterson CB LSU
A: Aldon Smith DE Missouri
My Thoughts: I don’t get this pick. If they play him at end, he is going to be a liability against the run. If they start him at the SAM linebacker position, they can move Lawson to weakside, but he still should be a liability against the run. So I guess they are really high on him as a pass rusher.

8. Tennessee (6-10):
M: Nick Fairley DT Auburn
E: Nick Fairley DT Auburn
A: Jake Locker QB Washington
My Thoughts: Nice, I love a shocker like this. He has quietly moved his draft stock from the 3rd round up to the 8th overall pick over the past couple months. Locker matches the Titans offense perfectly, and while he has some learning to do his background in the pro style offense and natural athleticism gives him a shot to be a franchise QB. He has even been compared to Brett Favre for his tough, gun slinging nature. It is tough not to like this pick, albeit it being a risky in the eyes of many.

9. Dallas (6-10):
M: Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
E: Tyron Smith OT USC
A: Tyron Smith OT USC
My Thoughts: It sure looks like they were trying to trade down, taking the clock down to about a minute left. With Gabbert still on the board, I can only wonder who was trying to leapfrog the Redskins for him. Getting Smith here at 9 isn’t the worst thing ever, but I cannot figure out why they would draft a right tackle over a potential shutdown corner like Amukamara. I suppose keeping Romo healthy supersedes any secondary needs, especially since once he got hurt their season went to hell in a handbasket.

Michael Irvin, god bless him, is an awful analyst. He never makes a good point. And boy oh boy does my mock stink. Other than Newton and Green, I have been awful. The top five made sense, but after the Browns trade my mock jumped the shark.

10. Washington (6-10): Traded to the Jaguars
M: Jake Locker QB Washington
E: Jake Locker QB Washington
A: Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
My Thoughts: Giving up your second round pick to get potentially the top QB of his class makes a lot of sense here. Garrard runs hot and cold, and for reasons unknown he plays like garbage unless he has someone to compete with. This is a great pick and Gabbert has the upside and talent to take the team in a whole new direction. This may by the steal of the draft.

I still think Ponder will go in the latter portion of the first, but it would be wild to see Kaepernick, Mallett or Dalton go in the first also. This draft has had more polarizing players at the QB position than any draft I can remember in recent years. What the heck the Redskins are going to do now?

11. Houston (6-10):
M: Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
E: Aldon Smith LB Missouri
A: J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
My Thoughts: Mario Williams and Amobi Okoye were drafted 1st and 11th respectively, and not forgetting former defensive rookie of the year Brian Cushing taken at 16th, apparently they still don’t have enough pass rushers. Their previous first round offensive player was Andre Johnson I believe; yeah I wouldn’t want to go back to that well. Watts is a good player and if he is a must have then fine, but they simply will not make the playoffs if their secondary doesn't show major improvement. It has the talent, but it just isn’t putting it together. This is awful news for Arian Foster dynasty owners.

The Lions must be downright out of their minds happy. Amukamara is going to fall right into their laps.

12. Minnesota (6-10):
M: Robert Quinn DE N. Carolina
E: Julio Jones WR Alabama.
A: Christian Ponder QB Florida St.
My Thoughts: Wow, this is getting awesome. I saw him going in the first, but 12 seems pretty wild for his ratings. It seems like they were trying to trade down, taking up until the last second to make their pick, which means they know they over drafted. They knew that Ponder wouldn’t make it past the last 20s so trading back up into the first was going to be tough to do. They simply made the pick they had to do, when they had to. No one can fault them for making the safe decision. And after some wild years with Brett Favre, Ponder should help the team get back to basics and help rebuild for the future.

13. Detroit (6-10):
M: Tyron Smith OT USC
E: Anthony Castonzo T Boston College.
A: Nick Fairley DT Auburn
My Thoughts: I understand how awesome it sounds to put Fairly next to Suh. Last years most talented DT and this year's most talented DT, but how do you tie up that much money into the tackle spot is confusing. Especially considering that Matt Stafford had to hire a personal aid to run on the field after each play to adjust his shoulder pads. I like the player and I like the team, but this is kinda like picking a two running backs in the first round in back to back years; it’s nice but simply not necessary.

The Lions are turning into the Raiders and becoming really tough to predict. And I must say, I have really enjoyed the Raiders not having a first round pick. Its great to not have to consider what craziness Al Davis is going to pull next.

14. St. Louis (7-9):
M: Aldon Smith DE Missouri
E: Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
A: Robert Quinn DE N. Carolina
My Thoughts: Drafting for value here is tough to do, so credit to the Ram’s for sticking with their plans. He can bookend with Chris Long and form a heckuva tandem. Considered by many to be a top 10 pick, this works out well from a value standpoint and the Rams continue to build for the future. I now expect them to trade up later on to try to draft Jonathan Baldwin; Clayton can’t catch every pass.

Who said there were gonna be a lot of trades? What trades?

15. Miami (7-9):
M: Mark Ingram RB Alabama
E: Mike Pouncey C Florida
A: Mike Pouncey C Florida
My Thoughts: If Miami was waiting on Ponder they cannot help but be disappointed. I am looking forward to seeing who Pouncy will block for this season. And I hope Mike really thanks his brother Maurkice, who must have really talked up his brother to teams. Mike is going 3 picks ahead of the more talented Maurkice.

Oh, well. There is always next year … probably.

16. Jacksonville (8-8): Traded to Redskins for Blaine Gabbert.
M: Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
E: Christian Ponder QB Florida St.
A: Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
My Thoughts: I guess he has better wheels than I thought, since he will have to play linebacker in the ‘Skins scheme. A high motor player and try hard guy, he is easily liked and should step into a leadership role for Shanahan immediately. But at 6’4 with average athleticism, I expect him to end up shifting to inside backer where he can use his strength and smarts to stuff the run. He simply isn’t a strong enough pass rusher to play the SAM effectively right now.

Wow, Mayock actually admitted that he is wrong and perhaps that he should shut his mouth. Life is pretty cool sometimes.

17. New England (From Oakland for Richard Seymore):
M: J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
E: Cameron Jordan DE California
A: Nate Solder OT Colorado
My Thoughts: The Pats could use help almost everywhere, but picking a tackle when they have an already above average offensive line is confusing to me. There may be contract issues that are playing a part behind the pick, because Vollomer and Light have both been terrific. Known as a smart player and a great technician but a player that needs to add strength. Because a strong end like Haloti Ngata would tear through him like a knife though butter.

18. San Diego (9-7):
M: Cameron Jordan DE California
E: J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
A: Corey Liuget DT Illinois.
My Thoughts: How does he fit into this defense? He isn’t a nose tackle, so making him play a 5 technique is sort of an odd maneuver. Oh well, with Norv Turner at the helm this team will continue to show promise that never materializes.

I am completely lost at this point. I am shocked that Ingram hasn’t gone yet, especially because the top talent is starting to dry up. He should find a home soon, but I am start to feel like my prediction on two running backs going in the first may be wrong.

19. NY Giants (10-6):
M: Anthony Castonzo OT B.C.
E: Corey Liuget DT Illinois.
A: Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
My Thoughts: A top ten player going at 19 is nice like spice. Prince is a better pick than Ingram here and I just didn’t see Prince available here. With a 6’0, 200 lb shut down corner being added to an already good secondary, the Giants just got that much more dangerous.

20. Tampa Bay (10-6):
M: Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson
E: Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson
A: Adrian Clayborn DE Iowa
My Thoughts: I thought that they would jump at the chance to get Bowers, but instead Clayborn (despite his Erbs Palsy condition) is the pick. He wasn’t even a lock for the first round, but managed to crack the top 20. There is a lot to like about him, but I personally don’t see what makes him superior to Cameron Jordan, who is bigger and faster than Clayborn. All said, Raheem Morris knows what he is doing so Clayborn must be good.

21. Kansas City (10-6): Traded to Browns
M: Phil Taylor NT Baylor
E: Gabe Carimi T Wisconsin.
A: Phil Taylor NT Baylor
My Thoughts: Right pick, wrong team. The Browns wanted the top nose tackle and they got him. He is a massive player who can disrupt plays and won’t be asked to do much other than stand at the line of scrimmage and tackle the runner. It is tough not to like this kid, but he doesn’t match the 4-3 scheme that the Browns run.

Peyton Hillis is a good looking dude. But voting him for the Madden cover is so overly racist it is downright scary. Mark Ingram is going to make a lot of teams regret passing.

22. Indianapolis (10-6):
M: Nate Solder OT Colorado
E: Derek Sherrod T Mississippi State.
A: Anthony Castonzo OT B.C.
My Thoughts: They needed a tackle and he should fit the Colts well. A good technician and a smart player, he should provide to relief for Manning into his twilight years. A fine pick.

23. Philadelphia (10-6):
M: Brandon Harris CB Miami (FL)
E: Jimmy Smith CB Colorado.
A: Danny Watkins G Baylor.
My Thoughts: Who they intend to start across from Samuel remains a mystery. Its nice to upgrade your offensive line, but this is one of the more mystifying picks so far. They have the most athletic QB in the league and a scatback runner who rarely plugs his way up the middle for the hard yards. Reid is considered a genius, so I cannot slam this pick, but I can say that I would love to have someone to explain it to me.

They should consider airing booing events on Sundays when we are locked out from football. The fans LOVE booing Goodell and I must say I would pay $40 to sit in a stadium and boo at him. This is the lowest that a Heismann winning running back has gone in a long, long time.

24. New Orleans (11-5):
M: Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
E: Jabaal Sheard DE Pittsburgh.
A: Cameron Jordan DE California
My Thoughts: This is bad for Bowers; he is gonna completely fall out of the first round. This guy is a great player and will fill the void at left end immediately. A great player and a good pick.

25. Seattle (7-9):
M: Christian Ponder QB Florida St.
E: Andy Dalton QB TCU.
A: James Carpenter T Alabama
My Thoughts: They took Okung last year at 6th, so yeah, why not another now. After all, Whiteshurst can’t throw enough picks to be properly ridiculed if he is laying on the turf all the time. This pick makes no sense.

26. Atlanta (13-3): Traded to Browns for Julio Jones
AND THEN Browns traded to CHIEFS for Phil Taylor.
M: Mike Pouncey C Florida
E: Danny Watkins G Baylor.
A: Jonathan Baldwin WR Pittsburgh
My Thoughts: It makes sense to pick a big, talented receiver in what is turning out to be an underwhelming class of wide receivers. It’s a pick that makes sense for this team since it addresses a major area of need. However, Baldwin is a fringe first round talent and he does have some bust factor to him.

27. Baltimore (12-4): PASSED… Kansas City gets to pick first…
M: Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple
E: Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
A: Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
My Thoughts: What a fall. I had him going to the Texans, but picking a guy that is highly reminiscent of the former Raven great Chris McAlister at 27th is excellent. Character concerns are legitimate, but what better team to go to? From their team’s history, anything short of killing a person if okay. Well, wait … Donte Stallworth got drunk and high, jumped in his Bentley, and ran down a pedestrian. Yeah, killing is okay. This is a GREAT pick.

The Ravens passed? This is a weird one. Apparently the Raven’s has a trade worked out with the Bears that got miscommunicated and their pick expired. This stuff does happen, but its rare.

28. New England (14-2): Traded to the Saints
M: Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
E: Brooks Reed LB Arizona.
A: Mark Ingram RB Alabama
My Thoughts: Well, this is arguably a great value. The Saints traded their next year 1st rounded and a bit more to grab Ingram, so the floor here is next year around the 20th pick at the worst. This guy should be everything that used to be Heisman trophy winner Reggie Bush was supposed to be. Excellent pick.

They must REALLY like Cameron Jordan to wait to pick Ingram and then trade back up. Seeing Ingram cry actually is making me well up. This is the whole reason I love the draft. When you see a kid coming out of nowhere to become a superstar.

29. Chicago (11-5):
M: Corey Liuget DT Illinois
E: Marvin Austin DT North Carolina.
A: Gabe Carimi T Wisconsin
My Thoughts: Eh, I understand this pick because Chris Williams has busted badly and Webb is a fine tackle but isn’t ready to handle the top pass rushers yet. The pick makes a lot of sense, it just isn’t real sexy. But considering the positions and talent left to choose from, this is a fine pick at 29.

30. New York Jets (11-5):
M: Stephen Paea DT Oregon State
E: Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple.
A: Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple.
My Thoughts: They really could have used a tackle here, but this is a fine pick. The Jets defense is excellent already and Wilkerson should help provide some continuity. He makes sense here.

31. Pittsburgh (12-4):
M: Aaron Williams CB Texas
E: Phil Taylor DT Baylor.
A: Cameron Heyward DE Ohio St.
My Thoughts: This pick makes sense and it didn’t take long for the Steelers to submit their pick. Heyward tools obviously appeal to LeBeau and he should provide both depth and become the successor to Aaron Smith. The Steelers usually draft well, but after getting completely shredded by Jordy Nelson and Aaron Rodgers they are going to have to come up with another player to add to that secondary.

So going into the last pick of the first round I have a number of players not drafted yet:
LB Ayers, DE Bowers, CB’s Harris & Williams, and Ryan Williams
Even I am having trouble defending this mess.

32. Green Bay (10-6):
M: Cameron Heyward DE Ohio St.
E: James Carpenter T Alabama.
A: Dereck Sherrod T Mississippi St.
My Thoughts: Keeping Rodgers from eating turf and getting concussed is a great idea. This pairs Bulaga with Sherrod for the next decade, and it’s a great pick at the end of the first round.

End stats:

So I was 2/32 on team specific picks (Newton and Green)
Evan was 4/32 on team specific picks (Newton, Tyron Smith, Pouncy, Wilkerson)
This is hard as hell to do, so credit where credit is due here.

I got 26/32 first round picks correct.
Evan for 27/32 first round picks correct.

As far as misses go we both whiffed on Bowers, who fell out of the first round.

I expected Bowers, Aaron Williams, Akeem Ayers, Brandon Harris, Ryan Williams and Stephen Peae to go, and instead saw Adrian Clayborn, Jonathan Baldwin, James Carpenter, and Danny Watkins, Derrick Sherrod, and Gabe Camini drafted.

Evan expected Bowers, Andy Dalton, Brooks Reed, Jabaal Sheard, Marvin Austin and instead saw Adrian Clayborn, Cameron Heyward, Jonathan Baldwin, Mark Ingram and Nate Solder.

I am disappointed with my mock. My figures overall are significantly better than how the mock matched up. I was surprised when Von Miller went second considering Denver’s needs. And seeing all of the QBs go in the top 12 was unusual as well; especially since there is such a huge drop off after the top four. There were very few trades and the draft this year went at a pretty clipped pace. Tomorrow is going to be very exciting considering the talent left untouched, especially for the teams that still don't have a starting quarterback.