The worst part of the draft is having to look at Roger Goodell's face. Vick can kill dogs, Stallworth can commit murder, Harrison can beat his wife, and the Belichik can cheat, and despite all of this Goodell manages to make the owners look like the bad guys. It never ceases to amaze.
I am pumped for draft day weekend and I am submitting what I consider to be my final mock draft now. I cannot see much news coming out over the next week that would affect my projections, since there are no more personal workouts and nearly everything said is total nonsense. In fact, I knew the draft analysts had already jumped the shark when a couple weeks ago Jason La Canfora suggested that the Bengals let the 10 minute time window for their fourth overall pick lapse, so that they could move back and pay less money. It was one of the dumbest ideas I have ever heard a smart guy say (that wasn't a politician). I will actually watch the draft and comment on each pick for my own amusement. If you happen to be reading this stop, turn off your PC and go outside. And if it is raining do it anyway. And look up. With your mouth open.
1. Carolina (2-14): Cam Newton QB Auburn
The Logic: Newton is considered by most as the top QB prospect of his class, and despite taking Clausen in the second round last year, he makes the most sense out of any player to go 1st overall. New HC Ron Rivera needs to put his own stamp on the team and giving the team and its fans hope for the future by drafting Newton makes the most sense. The already have strong running game and an off season to get their defense in order would make them ready to be legitimately competitive in a year or two. Newton offers the playmaking ability and winning attitude that fans and teammates can believe in, and other than Buffalo, there are few teams that need just that more than Carolina. .
2. Denver (4-12): Marcell Dareus DT Alabama
The Logic: Dareus has been heavily linked to the Denver Broncos since the Combine, when his measurements and drill times beat incumbent top DT prospect Nick Fairley. While Dareus doesn’t have the same gametape performances that Fairley does, he is still considered a top five prospect, a low downside pick and has the looks of a defensive building block And while draft Dareus does not add to a skill position, he has the potential to make everyone around him better.
3. Buffalo (4-12): Blaine Gabbert QB Missouri
The Logic: While Von Miller has been to consensus pick for the Bills, it boggles the mind to think that Buffalo would seriously consider walking into another season (maybe) with no starting level QB on their roster. When they passed on Clausen last year they committed themselves to a losing season. There are fewer questions about Gabbert, who is considered the top QB of his class by some. When you consider the importance of the QB position it makes little sense to pass on a top QB prospect in the top 5 to just hope to have a QB with starting potential fall to them. Management does not want to have to deal with this same issue again next year, and the coaching staff won’t be dealt the luxury.
4. Cincinnati (4-12): A.J. Green WR Georgia
The Logic: Marvin Lewis is back and I am sure that he intends to shake things up. Step 1: Dump Chad Ocho Cinco. He previously was worth the aggravation; but after dancing and dating his way into a poor shape and playing like garbage last year I am sure that his name will be called on draft day – as the part of a trade. Green has top level talent and often compared to top talents like Calvin Johnson. He presents a rare opportunity for the Bengals to get young elite receiver to help build a rapport with their next QB. With Carson Palmer and his ruined arm likely retired or traded I don’t see another 4-12 season coming again very soon; making right now the time to get your franchise receiver.
5. Arizona (5-11): Von Miller OLB Texas A&M
The Logic: Neither Karlos Dansby, or his production, has yet to be replaced, and they are missing his presence in a big way. Miller would provide a pass rushing presence to compliment previous top pick Dan Williams’ run stopping ability. Miller is a rare combination of elite talent and low downside, and should step in as the leader of the defense right away.
6. Cleveland (5-11): Julio Jones WR Alabama
The Logic: As usual the Browns have a top 10 pick and as usual they have a number of areas to address. With McCoy finally providing some consistency at the QB position and their defense finally seeing some of their players step up (Ahtyba Rubin, Chris Gocong, TJ Ward, Joe Haden), wide receiver becomes the most logical position to address. Jones tested out well at the combine despite a broken foot and is known to be an excellent downfield blocker, making him a perfect fit for Cleveland’s smashmouth running attack. While a stud defensive end is also a possibility, their current corps of receivers is one of the leagues worst and has shown very little promise.
7. San Francisco (6-10): Patrick Peterson CB LSU
The Logic: The 49ers should be elated to see Peterson drop to them, since many consider him to be the top prospect of the entire draft class. And while the Niners could use a QB pretty badly, the new coaching staff seems intent on retaining Alex Smith. And since there have been no reports of them being interested in trading down to select a later first round QB, I am guessing they like their slot at eight. Peterson should be able to replace aging vet Nate Clements immediately and has all the potential to become a shutdown corner. I did find it notable though, that a cornerback coach was recently quoted asking, “What do you call a 6’2, 220 lb. cornerback - a safety.”
8. Tennessee (6-10): Nick Fairley DT Auburn
The Logic: Tony Brown, Jason Jones, and Sen’Derrick Marks have tried to replace Albert Haynesworth, but after he left the teams rushing defense rank fell from 10 to 20. Part of this could have been their QB woes, but Haynesworth, when he felt like it, could absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage. Quite similarly, Fairley has shown dominant ability in big college games and is considered by some to be the top DT of the draft. However, character concerns have cause his stock to drop and this is the first spot that makes sense after Denver. Despite their QB problem, I do expect them to pass on Jake Locker here.
9. Dallas (6-10): Prince Amukamara CB Nebraska
The Logic: It took one bad hit to sideline Romo and tank the Cowboy’s whole season. While tackle is a spot of concern (not necessarily weakness) and USC’s Tyron Smith has been heavily linked to the Cowboy most mocks, cornerback also remains a pressing need. Mike Jenkins was awful in coverage, FS Alan Ball was a disaster and top CB Terence Newman is headed into his mid thirties and due to make over $8 million next season. Before the draft, Amukamara was considered the top CB of his class. Tall, fast, strong and smart; he has legitimate potential to be number 1 corner.
10. Washington (6-10): Jake Locker QB Washington
The Logic: Locker has been linked to the Redskins, Seahawks and Vikings in the first round, but I don’t expect Shanahan to let him fall past them at 10. Rumor is that Shanahan was interested in drafting Locker last year if he declared for the draft. Despite Locker’s subpar senior season, it is likely than Shanahan still considers Locker a potential franchise QB that could fit his bootleg heavy system. His combination of athleticism, arm strength, headiness, and pro style experience has the league, along with Shanahan, sold on him as a first round pick.
11. Houston (6-10): Jimmy Smith CB Colorado
The Logic: Smith is considered a physical specimen and a potentially dominant press coverage corner. Character concerns have his stock down and analysts have him usually going somewhere between 15 and 25. The reality is that Smith is really a top 10 pick and with serious talent; the type that kept opposing teams from throwing to his side of the field his junior and senior seasons. The Texans must do something about their secondary and Smith would be a godsend for them to find at 11. Kareem Jackson was mercilessly burned his rookie year and Glover Quin has failed to develop thus far. And their head coach is on the hot seat after last season’s regression, fielding a team with such a poor secondary that their league leading rushing attack was completely nullified. The Texans often draft defense in the first round and this year should be nothing different.
12. Minnesota (6-10): Robert Quinn DE N. Carolina
The Logic: This team has a ton of talent, and while quarterback is a pressing need, it is difficult to see them taking Christian Ponder or Colin Kaepernick at 12. The could choose to trade down, since plenty of teams would be looking to move up to nab a stud pass rusher. But at 12, for now, Quinn makes the most sense. Most argue Quinn goes before 12, and talent wise he should, but other than the Browns and the Cowboys no other teams make a whole lot of sense. The Vikings are losing Ray Edwards to free agency, and despite the insane money tied into Jared Allen, keeping their defensive line full of elite talent isn’t a bad idea.
13. Detroit (6-10): Tyron Smith OT USC
The Logic: This team is finally showing some potential and if they could keep their franchise QB on his feet they would be doing even better. While there are a number of ways that Detroit could go at 13, CBs Smith and Amukamara off the board and Da’Quan Bowers knee issue potentially scaring them off, Tyron Smith makes a lot of sense. Incredible measurable mixed with good intangibles makes him a legitimate franchise left tackle prospect. And if they take Bowers at 13, and risk their franchise QB again next year, they deserve to continue to lose.
14. St. Louis (7-9): Aldon Smith DE Missouri
The Logic: This team is desperate for a number one receiver, but other than trading up for Julio Jones, there isn’t a receiver that makes sense at 14. Trading back isn’t the worst idea, but taking an athlete with amazing potential and raw ability like Aldon Smith is not a bad consolidation prize. He is likely to play end at the next level, but has the athleticism to play linebacker, and would provide an excellent bookend for recent breakout Chris Long. Having duel pass rushing threats has worked for the Colts, it could work for the Rams.
15. Miami (7-9): Mark Ingram RB Alabama
The Logic: Letting Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams walk leaves the running back position as a serious weakness. And with Chad Henne continued struggles, it is usually the running game that helps eek out their wins. Heisman trophy winner Mark Ingram should step in as a three down, workhorse back who the team can lean on to make plays and get the tough yards.. While other analysts have a QB here and have down talked the importance of having a early pick running back, Ingram is a lock for the top 20 and it is likely that another running back will hear his name on Thursday as well.
16. Jacksonville (8-8): Akeem Ayers OLB UCLA
The Logic: While their secondary is in shambles and they would love to see Jimmy Smith fall to them, I forsee them forced to draft for value rather than need with their first pick. And since no wideout or QB offers fair value at 16, either a trade or drafting the best available player makes sense. Many have Ayers pegged for late first round, but the Jags have always gone their own way. Ayers offers tremendous potential and could start immediately on the strong side for them, as both a pass rushing threat and a sideline to sideline cover backer. Considered the only other first round linebacker in the draft by many, Ayers will have premium value on draft day.
17. New England (Oak): J.J. Watt DE Wisconsin
The Logic: After starting Vince Wilfork at end last year due to injury, Belichik must be strongly considering a defensive lineman with one of his first two picks. And while the Pats have a various areas which could use an upgrade, Watts size, power, versatility and high character all scream Belichik. So far they have failed to replace Richard Seymore, so what could be better than using the same pick gained to nab his successor. Despite this draft prediction, I fully expect Belichik to trade down. There is a reason that the Patriots hold two picks in each of the first four rounds this year; Belichik doesn’t give big money out to unproven players. From what I have heard, he believes that it is bad for team morale and unity to have a rookie making three or four times the amount as a veteran player who is outplaying him. Then again, no team is going to walk away with a championship without top tier talent; which is exactly why the Pats folded like a house of cards to the Jets last year. The Jets were simply the more talented team and Rex Ryan didn’t mismanage the game.
18. San Diego (9-7): Cameron Jordan DE California
The Logic: Jordan is an underrated college player who will definitely hear his name called in the first round. He has all the tools to be a successful starter in the NFL with a potent combination of size, power, instincts and IQ. With the Chargers already boasting a league leading aerial attack and a good secondary, Jordan will step in to keep the run defense elite and mobile quarterbacks honest.
19. NY Giants (10-6): Anthony Castonzo OT B.C.
The Logic: The Giants were one of the most banged up teams last year and Tom Coughlin let his team know that he was proud of them in a rare emotional moment at the end of last year. This team isn’t far from playing for a championship again, but it needs to do a little maintenance to keep its smashmouth rushing identity alive. Plodder Brandon Jacobs is circling the drain and Ahmad Bradshaw is injured too often to stay effective for an entire year. They would love to see Mark Ingram fall to them, but he is unlikely to fallout of the top 15. Outside of Rashaan Salaam (picked 21st in ’95) you haven’t seen a Heisman winning running back not go in the first 15 picks in decades. Without a linebacker (other than Ayers if he is available) making sense at 19, they are likely to turn their attention to upgrading their offensive line. Castonzo is arguably the best tackle in the draft, an outstanding technician with top level measurables. And while he does not project as a road grading run blocker, drafting him to help keep their aging line elite and Manning on his feet makes a lot of sense.
20. Tampa Bay (10-6): Da'Quan Bowers DE Clemson
The Logic: Previously considered the top pass rusher of the draft and a top five pick, a medical redflag at the combine and a poor personal workout has teams moving Bowers off their board in the first round. Still a tremendous talent and a terror off the edge, and despite his knee issue, the Bucs would be elated to see him fall to them at 20. Several other teams in the teens reportedly plan to take him before he ever makes it this far, but there are few GMs who would brag about to spending a top 20 pick on a player with a potentially tricky micro-fracture injury. The Bucs are a mess at defensive end and Bowers is a no brainer here if he drops this far.
21. Kansas City (10-6): Phil Taylor NT Baylor
The Logic: This team has serious question marks at defensive tackle. Edwards won’t be back and Taylor would step in as a starter day one. While OT, WR and LB all remains areas of need, grabbing the most talented nose tackle in the draft would be a wise move at the end of the first round. He offers tremendous size and strength, and should be able to help improve the rushing defense immediately. With Tamba Hali already wreaking havoc on the edge, putting a powerful force in the middle of the line of scrimmage should keep their young defensive backfield looking at less 3rd and short plays than last year.
22. Indianapolis (10-6): Nate Solder OT Colorado
The Logic: The Colts have more or less come out and specifically said that they are going to draft a tackle. The Colts are one of the worst teams in the league without Manning in the lineup, and he isn’t getting any younger, quicker, or more durable. Solder has all the talent and the physical tools to develop into a franchise left tackle, and his finesse style matches the Colts finesse offense perfectly. Drafting a franchise left tackle to keep Manning effective throughout his twilight years is more than smart - it’s necessary.
23. Philadelphia (10-6): Brandon Harris CB Miami (FL)
The Logic: The Eagles are one of the more complete teams in the league, with a dynamic offense capable of blowing opponents out each week. Unfortunately, a weak link in their secondary led them to a premature exit in the playoffs last year. Harris would be a boon for the Eagles and an excellent starter opposite of Asante Samuel. He has excellent speed and quickness, with impressive instincts and good tackling ability. As a pure cover corner, he should fit the Eagles defense perfectly.
24. New Orleans (11-5): Ryan Kerrigan DE Purdue
The Logic: After picking up Shaun Rodgers in the short free agency period before the lockout started, they are left with just one unmanned spot along the defensive line – a position that Kerrigan should easily be able to fill. His top notch intangibles make up for his lack of elite athleticism, and he is regarded as a fierce competitor and leader. He should go higher than this, but due to his tweener size and less than stellar performance in linebacker drills, he is likely to fall down draft boards for teams who value players that fit a predetermined mold.
25. Seattle (7-9): Christian Ponder QB Florida St.
The Logic: Names like Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Mallett, and Andy Dalton have all been mentioned in connection with the Seahawks at 25. However, Ponder makes the most sense for the west coast system that they run. He has under rated athleticism, and despite his injury history, proven toughness. And while he struggles with the deep ball, his ability to execute short, accurate timed passes should give him a legitimate shot to master the WOC.
26. Baltimore (12-4): Muhammad Wilkerson DE Temple
The Logic: Their secondary has played above their talent level and could use additional talent, but after Trevor Price turned traitor to the Jets mid season they were left with a legit need at defensive end. Tall, strong and surprisingly fast; he is an intriguing combination of size and body control. However, he is not a stellar pass rusher and playing for Temple did not put him against top tier talent, but he has potential to be an above average starter and the ability to play both end and tackle.
27. Atlanta (13-3): Mike Pouncey C Florida
The Logic: Since I am not sold that Tony Gonzalez is retiring, I am not going to mock Kyle Rudolph to the Falcons, as most have. With multiple guards hitting free agency and a grind out the clock offensive running attack, they will need to rebuild their line. Pouncy makes sense here are the top guard/center, offering comparable talent to his Pro Bowl brother. Some have mocked a defensive end, but there are other options that could make sense in later rounds or free agency. Keeping their running attack strong and Ryan on his feet are crucial
28. New England (14-2): Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech
The Logic: The Pats would love Ingram, but he will be long gone by now. They are likely to trade this pick to move down, with various teams still aiming to grab a late first rounder QB. And while he lacks elite tools, his ultracompetitive nature, natural running ability, and versatility should heavily appeal to the Pats. After years of dealing with the whimsical play of Laurence Maroney, Belichik should jump at the chance to pick up a talented back who gives maximum effort on every play.
29. Chicago (11-5): Corey Liuget DT Illinois
The Logic: After dumping Tommie Harris, no amount of posturing is going to make Henry Melton into a starting tackle in the NFL. Liuget has the potential to excel as a tackle in a 4-3 defense, although he has yet to develop into a NFL starting caliber player. He still needs to add strength and increase his football knowledge, but has plenty of talent and offers terrific upside. The Bears need to keep their defense elite if they want to repeat last year’s success.
30. New York Jets (11-5): Stephen Paea DT Oregon State
The Logic: Losing Kris Jenkins again last year puts tackle at the top of the Jets list of priorities. The will never be able to resign all of their impending free agents, but after picking Kyle Wilson in the first round last year they can let Cromartie walk and they can afford to keep either Holmes or Edwards. Freakishly strong and versatile, he should appeal to Rex Ryan and his nasty defense. He projects as an excellent run stopper and should help keep their defense at the top of the rushing defense rankings.
31. Pittsburgh (12-4): Aaron Williams CB Texas
The Logic: As a Pittsburgh native, I know about the Steelers as well as anyone living in Pittsburgh; because I am obligated to. If you don’t know everything about them you are beaten with steel rods in the streets by children. The fans enjoy it as a nice offseason break and parents are happy to have something to keep their kids busy. The Steelers are one of the more well rounded and complete teams in the league, with a great shot at getting back to the superbowl again next season. But after an absolute torching by Aaron Rodgers in the biggest game of the year their biggest need is obvious. Williams is not overly fast and considered a safety prospect for the NFL by some, but the Steelers are likely to favor his physical style, leaping ability, and tackling ability. As a potential successor to Ike Taylor or as his bookend, he should appeal to Pittsburgh at 31.
32. Green Bay (10-6): Cameron Heyward DE Ohio St.
The Logic: Greenbay just recently found itself picking in the top 10, and now they sit as champions of the NFL. Another well rounded team, they are likely to target a defensive end after losing Johnny Jolly to a potential suspension for drug possession. Heyward would fit their 3-4 defense perfectly, and while he lacks top end athleticism he has excellent instincts and offers rare experience as a four year starter for Ohio State. He will help against the run and should free up space for their edge rushing linebackers.
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