Free Agency: Who, Where and Why?

VERISON 3: 2/24/12

This is a team by team rundown of the free agents I think they will potentially sign. If you don’t see a free agent’s name here then they are either likely resign with their current team or are not necessarily going to have a job in the NFL at all. I pass on doing offensive linemen due to lack of knowledge. I have completed my predictions for QB,RB,WR,TE and DL positions, and LB/DB positions are still being added.

49ers:

WR: Reggie Wayne. The 49ers have no one to start opposite of Michael Crabtree and after last season they are primed to overpay. He makes more sense than fellow free agents Robert Meachem and Mario Manningham, since both deep threats would be a waste of long speed due to Smith’s noodle arm. Wayne is a professional in every sense of the word and would be a great help as a mentor to Crabtree, while providing Smith with a gritty, third down, chain moving target.

Bears:

QB: David Garrard. The Bears desperately need to solid backup and Garrard’s days as a starter appear over. How well Garrard can still play is a major question mark due to his chronic back issues, but the Bears cannot afford that risk another season with someone of Caleb Hanie’s ability as their primary insurance in case Cutler goes down again.

WR: Laurent Robinson. Robinson is likely to resign with the Cowboys, but could easily be lured away by a fat contract offer from another team. Robinson is unlikely to draw serious, large money offers from most teams, but the Bears are desperate for a tall receiver for Cutler to work with. Robinson should come at a cap friendly price due to his lackluster resume, but has flashed enough potential last year to merit a serious contract, a contract much larger than the cap-strapped Cowboys can afford to offer.

Bengals:

RB: Carnell Williams. With Cedric Benson likely gone, the Bengals should look to add a veteran back as insurance behind Bernard Scott, and Williams is one of the most versatile options on the market. The former first round pick has shown that he has recovered since his myriad of knee injuries in Tampa, but he remains a poor bet to stay healthy. He won’t cost enough to prohibit drafting an early round runner but will provide a legitimate rushing threat for them should Bernard Scott fail to live up to expectations.

WR: Robert Meachem. The Bengals appear intent on moving on from Jerome Simpson and Andre Caldwell, leaving them with a gaping hole across from AJ Green. Meachem will come at a price, but any 6’2 deep threat entering the prime of his career would. I believe that he has yet to realize his full potential as he has been stuck in a receiver rotation since coming into the league. A perfect fit for the Bengals, he should prevent teams from doubling Green on every play and help to stretch the field.

Bills:

QB: Vince Young. There won’t be many teams interested in a player with as many issues as Young is perceived to have, but the Bills should be. They are caught in a spot where they appear committed to a low level starter in Ryan Fitzpatrick and could use a legitimate challenger to keep the pressure on Fitzpatrick to perform. Young has tons of talent and can quarterback a running team, making him an ideal backup for a team that has faded late in the season in back to back years due to injury.

WR: Steve Smith basically took 2011 off while playing in Philadelphia and should be returning to full health for the 2012 free agent market. If his knee is fully healed the Bills should take a long look at him because he fits their offensive need perfectly. They will bring back Steve Johnson and prefer 6’4 David Nelson in the slot, leaving them with no proven outside receiver to Fitzpatrick’s left side. Smith is a proven asset playing outside and a target monster when healthy.

DL: Mario Williams. The Bills made a mistake shifting to a 3-4 defense without the proper personnel; something that the Colts may learn the hard way in 2012. A shift back to a 4-3 should help maximize the talent on the team and attract the attention of more free agent pass rushers. Mario Williams will be aiming to break the bank in free agency and not many teams have the same salary cap space as the Bills. It would be somewhat out of character for the Bills to enter a bidding war for a free agent, but then again players like Mario Williams only come along once a decade. If the Bills really want him, and they should, they should be able to make him the highest paid defensive player in the league.

Broncos:

QB: Chad Henne. Despite Tebow’s heroics last season, the Broncos organization has resolved little regarding their quarterback situation. Pushing Tebow with stiff competition, while avoiding criticism for setting him up to fail, is a difficult task. Fortunately for the Broncos, Chad Henne has tons of talent but could still be had for low lever starter money. Henne is the exact opposite of Tebow in playing style, but offers similar upside in that neither player has really reached their full potential as a starter yet. Henne’s more traditional passing abilities should appeal to the Broncos and he would serve as insurance should Tebow stumble out of the gate.

WR: Early Doucet. Regardless of who is under center in 2012, the Broncos can do better than Matt Willis as their third receiver. Doucet won’t come cheap, but the 6’0, 212lb receiver fits the mold for a receiver in the Broncos run heavy attack. He can play inside or outside and has decent enough hands to be a second option should either Decker or Thomas miss significant playing time.

DL: Paul Soliai. The Broncos keep trying to shore up the interior of their defensive line and Mr. Murphy has had a grand time at ruining their every effort. With a good amount of cap space to work with, the Broncos may be able to pickup Paul Soliai on a short term, prove it contract full of bonus escalators for playing time. If they can get back a few injured players and pair them with a space eater like Soliai the Broncos will field a top 10 run defense in no time.

Browns:

WR: Mario Manningham. The Browns are desperate for receiving help and Manningham’s down year in 2011 shouldn’t be a big enough reason for them to not throw stupid money at him, even if the rest of the league won’t. If the Browns are serious about drafting RGIII they will need someone to catch his passes other than Greg Little, and providing him with anything but a full corps of legit receiving options would be setting him up to fail.

Buccaneers:

QB: Brady Quinn. They Bucs are committed to Josh Freeman, but they need to have another option behind him should he continue to regress. After getting passed over for a starting shot by Tebow this year, Quinn should be targeting a team that offers a legit shot at starting but is unlikely to find it. However, the cap rich Bucs know that they need to add talent, and a former first round pick quarterback with only 14 starts under his belt offers as much potential as almost anyone else on the free agent market. Quinns signing wouldn’t upset the apple-cart, but would quietly leave the team with insurance behind Freeman.

RB: Ladanian Tomlinson. Should he decide to return at all, Tampa Bay makes the most sense for him. No contender is really looking for an expensive, aging third down specialist, so it will be the young upstart teams that will most value him in a mentoring role. The Buccaneers are one of the youngest teams in the league and they could benefit from the tutelage of a hall of fame runningback.

WR: Eddie Royal. The Bucs are talking up spending big in free agency, but don’t have much of a history of doing so in recent history. If they still believe in Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn as starters then adding a slot receiver is the next logical move to improve the offense. Free agent Eddie Royal has versatility to work out of the backfield, in and out of the slot, and as a punt returner. He would automatically boost their special teams and has shown flashes of potential during his rookie year.

DL: Jason Jones. The Bucs have had one of the league’s worst run defenses for years despite their most vain attempts to correct it. They cannot force their playmakers to stay healthy, so reinforcements will be needed. Jones is coming off a down year after being force to play end in Tennessee and he should be looking for a fresh start elsewhere. He isn’t a must for the Bucs, but there are more reasons to make him a fair offer than not to.

LB: Curtis Lofton. Lofton is looking to cash in as a premier inside linebacker and defensive leader entering his prime. The Bucs will likely consider Lofton and Panther’s Dan Conner as upgrades at ILB, but favor stealing from their rivals the most. Lofton won’t come cheap, but should help solidify a run defense that has been atrocious for years.

Cardinals:

LB: Ahmad Brooks. The Cardinals are thin at OLB and could use a plug and play veteran like Brooks. He is coming off a career year in SF and will be looking for a significant pay upgrade, but the Cardinals have spent enough draft picks in recent years on linebackers, with mixed results, to know that a player like Brooks would be a huge gain for their defense.

Chargers:

RB: Jackie Battle. The 6’2, 240lb bruiser wants a bigger offensive role and the Chargers won’t have a short yardage back after Mike Tolbert leaves for free agency. Starter Ryan Mathews has proven injury prone early in his career and Battle should come at a reasonable price for the chance to play for his division rival. Battle and Mathews are near opposites as runners, so Battle’s addition could add balance to an offense that is likely to lose their number one receiver to free agency.

WR: Pierre Garcon. With V-Jax likely gone, the Chargers will look to find a reasonably priced replacement and Garcon should be their top target. The inconsistent vertical threat shouldn’t break the bank, but should provide the Chargers some sort of consolation after losing Jackson. Only 25, he offers the most potential of the second tier free agent receivers and would benefit from working with an All-Pro like Philip Rivers.

DL: Sione Pouha. The Chargers have lacked a talented nose tackle ever since Jamal Williams left, and their pass rush has suffered because of it. With their offense taking a step back last year, their defense had the spotlight put on it and their problem areas became obvious. With HC Norv Turner on the hot seat, he should be pulling out all the stops to make a deep playoff run this year and signing the top free agent NT is a step in the right direction. Pouha is on the downside of his career, a late career marvel and looking to break the bank in free agency but I don’t put it past Turner to go out and get him.

Chiefs:

QB: Jason Campbell. New HC seemed contented with Matt Cassel at quarterback in his post-season presser, but after speaking to upper management his opinion changed. Now he is supposed to hold a competition and Jason Campbell would be ideal selection. He wouldn’t cost much or command a multiyear deal, and he has shown the ability to quarterback a running team (see Oakland Raiders). Campbell should look forward to the opportunity to compete in the same division as his former team and a shot at starting.

RB: Mike Tolbert. With Charles returning from a serious injury, Thomas Jones unlikely to return, and Jackie Battle and Dexter McCluster both unfit for major roles on offense; Tolbert is a must have for the Chiefs. Not only would he provide a legitimate physical backfield presence that was missing last year, but also insight into the rival Chargers behind the scenes activities. The Chiefs are a run first team and no pickup would be more crucial than a power runner in his prime.

DL: Shaun Rogers. With Kelly Gregg contemplating retirement, the Chiefs need to be aggressive in obtaining an interior tackle that can anchor the defensive line. This idea won’t be lost on new HC Romeo Crennel and Shaun Rogers makes a lot of sense. He isn’t a pure nose, but has the size to play the position and has a history with Crennel from his days in Cleveland. It’s not an ideal match, but for the price the Chiefs would be hard pressed to find a better bargain.

Colts:

QB: Chad Pennington. I actually think that McNabb would be a superior choice, but the Colt’s simply won’t be able to afford much in their first year of restructuring. Pennington would come at the veteran minimum and provide an excellent mentor for Andrew Luck.

Cowboys:

Dolphins:

QB: Peyton Manning. While it is uncertain that Peyton will ever play the game again at the same level we accustomed to seeing, what is certain is that he going to give it a go. Miami should line up to be the first bidder for his services, and the draw of Florida and the opportunity to work with new HC Joe Philbin should be plenty tempting for the aging superstar. Miami offers as much upside and potential as any other franchise, and Manning would get to brush up on his golf game in his downtime. Most importantly, it places him in a division safely away from his multi-superbowl winning brother Eli. In his two meetings with Eli (in seven years they have only played each other twice!), Peyton remains undefeated.

TE: Martellus Bennett. There will be many teams interested in Bennett, but few will offer starting money or a starting position. Anthony Fasano has only one year left on his contract and new HC has already publicly stated that he is looking to add a new, explosive receiving threat from the tight end position. Bennett is no slam dunk, but after years of languishing behind Jason Witten he should be highly motivated to prove himself as a wasted asset in Dallas.

Eagles:

WR: Plaxico Burress: Burress seems to have little left in the tank and lost the ability to separate from receivers, but he is still a legit redzone threat. The Eagles are teeming with talent and potential, but could use someone to take pressure off of LeSean McCoy in the redzone; a player that defenses will focus on stopping in 2012. Burress reportedly “badly” wants to play for the Eagles and I can see no reason why the Eagle’s couldn’t sign him on a reasonable, one year deal.

LB: Dan Conner. The Eagles have one of the most underwhelming linebacker corps in the league and incumbent ILB Jamar Chaney is coming off a neck injury. Conner is a tackle machine that has played most of his career behind a porous Panthers front four, so Philadelphia should offer easier sledding for the former Penn State product. The Eagles, as always, have plenty of cap space and should be looking to upgrade their run defense with a second tier free agent that won’t break the bank, making Conner the perfect leader for the talented, but inconsistent, Eagle’s defense.

Falcons:

Giants:

TE: Visanthe Shiancoe. After leaving New York for a stupidly large contract from the Vikings, his career highlight has been exposing himself on live TV. Visanthe should have his agent calling the Giants every single day leading up to free agency in hopes of a reunion. The Giants are in a bad way at the tight end position due to their top two tight ends both tearing their ACLs during the Superbowl, and at the right price Shiancoe would be a logical pickup.

Jaguars:

WR: Braylon Edwards. There aren’t many teams that are in worse shape at the receiver position and have a lot of cap space. Edwards probably wouldn’t get any guaranteed money after a disastrous one year stint with the 49ers but could easily get a heavily incentive laden contract and basically a guaranteed starting spot in Jacksonville. With a properly structured contract, this signing would be a win-win for both sides.

WR: Harry Douglas. New HC Mike Mularkey helped draft and coached Harry in Atlanta, so his interest in the inconsistent speedster should be as big as anyone else’s. Jacksonville’s wide receiving corps needs overhauled and Douglas would be a good first step.

Jets:

WR: Randy Moss. Rex Ryan can do little at this point but steer into the skid and try to muster a superbowl berth with the talent he has accumulated. He will need help at every position, and a late career mercenary with a championship ring on his mind should be a natural fit among his band of misfits. Holmes and a motivated Moss on the same field would present significant challenges for defenses and help keep opponents from lining up eight in the box against Shonn Greene.

Lions:

Packers:

Panthers:

WR: Terrell Owens. Owens is likely done in the NFL, but should he return the Panthers make the most sense for him. A team on the rise with no legitimate no. 2 receiver on the roster, his addition would ideally kick Nanee to the slot and help take double coverage off of Steve Smith. A tall, physical target for Newton to throw to in the redzone would be a godsend and take the pressure off of Newton to make dangerous rushing attempts inside the 20. Newton didn’t break the TD rushing record for quarterbacks last year by accident, it had everything to do with a lack of redzone targets.

Patriots:

WR: Brandon Lloyd. The Patriots don’t have much at the wide receiver position beyond Wes Welker, who is purely a slot receiver. Fun fact, only 11 of Wes Welker’s 554 career receptions have been thrown for 20+ yards. Lloyd has a well-documented history with new OC Josh McDaniels, and he should come at a discount due to his favoritism toward McDaniels.

DL: John Abraham. The Patriots lost Mike Wright to concussions and Andre Carter to a torn quad, and neither are likely to return. The Patriots dearly need to rebuild their defense and a veteran like Abraham would step in and start from day one. A elite pass rusher on the downside of his career, who can hold his own against the run, would provide the Patriots with an every down player that could finally take advantage of the opportunities that Vince Wilfork creates on every play.

Raiders:

Rams:

RB: Justin Forsett. An offense lacking playmakers can use any infusion of talent available and Forsett would be a great addition. He can play runningback, return punts, and play on special teams, while adding speed to a backfield totally devoid of it. Steven Jackson is still the lead back and that won’t change, but Fosett’s versatility should be a boon for Sam Bradford and the rest of the offense.

WR: Jerome Simpson. No team needs an overhaul at the wide receiver position more than the Rams and Simpsons addition would automatically make him their top receiving option. In his first year as a starter, the 6’2 former second round pick displayed inconsistency but flashes of his talent catching 50 passes for 725 yards. The Rams need major help and Simpson would be at the very worst their second receiver.

DL: Albert Haynesworth. The word is out about Haynesworth and the only thing left to wonder is what would have happened if he chose to stay in Tennessee. No one else in the league would even consider dealing with such an unprofessional like Haynesworth, other than perhaps new Rams HC Jeff Fisher. If Haynesworth can succeed anywhere in the NFL it’s going to be St. Louis.

DB: Cortland Finnegan. The Rams have about 10 defensive backs returning from injury this year, but unfortunately none of them are very good. Part of the Titans migration, Finnegan will be looking to set himself up for retirement on a long term deal and Jeff Fisher shouldn’t take long to grant him his wish. Finnegan is arguably the top defensive back on the free agent market and anything under 10m a year would be more than reasonable for the Rams.

Ravens:

RB: Steve Slaton. Slaton barely sniffed the field last year while playing in Miami and he is entering a make it or break it year for his career. With Ricky Williams 50-50 on returning for 2012 and Ray Rice stumping for a huge payday; the Raven’s need to find a low-cost option to add to the backfield as insurance. Healthy and only 4 years removed from his 1,200 yard rookie campaign, he would be a logical addition for the cap strapped Ravens.

Redskins:

WR: Vincent Jackson. Adam Snyder has spent pennies on the dollar at the wide receiver position since drafting mega busts Devin Thomas and Malcom Kelly. A tall, athletic target in his prime like Jackson would give the Redskins offense some legitimacy and their run game some breathing room. Expect Snyder and Co. to hit the phones hard for Jackson on March 13th.

DL: Kendall Langford. The Redskins have stolen Dolphins players for years and Langford should be no exception. A natural 3-4 end entering the prime of his career will attract plenty of attention in free agency, but more money from the salary cap rich Redskins than anyone else. With their entire defensive line injured and not much depth to be had, Langford would stabilize the left end position and provide more pass rushing opportunities for their dangerous linebacker corps.

Saints:

Seahawks:

QB: Kyle Orton. No one believes that Tarvaris Jackson is going to take Seattle to a superbowl, but until they manage to lockup a franchise QB they are going to just try to stay competitive. Orton would provide veteran leadership for a young Seahawks team, and could even steal the starting job from Jackson should he regress.

Steelers:

WR: Jerricho Cotchery. After falling behind youngsters Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown last year, Jerricho may very well find his best opportunity in Pittsburgh again in 2012. Mike Wallace is no lock to return and Hines Ward is good as gone. Brown and Sanders would likely start ahead of Jerricho, but a single injury would earn him a full time starting job on a perennial playoff team. If he wants to return to prominence, resigning with the Steelers on a short term contract could very well end up providing his best chance at eventually cashing in from free agency. He already knows the Steelers system and another year in the black and gold would let him continue to rehabilitate his career while taking getting another shot at a championship ring.

Texans:

WR: Roy Williams. Roy is quickly running out of teams that don’t hate him and a playoff team with a strong running game would be the perfect landing spot for him. Still a physical receiver capable of making a play on third down occasionally, the Texans should consider a low-ball offer for the aging Williams. It would give them someone that can catch and block across from Andre Johnson at a salary cap friendly price.

Titans:

DL: Robert Mathis. Few teams have generated less pressure on the quarterback last year than the Titans and with no premier pass rusher on the roster, they should be looking to add a veteran presence along the defensive line. Mathis has averaged over 9 sacks a year in his NFL career, which would account for roughly a third of what the entire Titan defense managed during the entire 2011 season.

RB: Cedric Benson. With plenty of cap space to spare, the Titans should be motivated to find someone to push Chris Johnson. Much like Lendale White competed for carries with Johnson early in his career, adding an inside runner like Benson could keep Johnson from wearing down while providing the short yardage threat they are lacking.

Vikings:

RB: Ronnie Brown. How much he has left in the tank is a major question and his injury prone nature is well documented, but the Vikings won’t need him for the entire season anyway. While Peterson has a history of being a fast healer, the chances of AP hitting the field Week 1 at full power is way less than 50%. Toby Gerhart has proven himself capable of early down work, but has been a mess in pass protection. Brown can play on all three downs and would be a major asset to the Vikings until Peterson returns.