The obvious favorites to win the division, they spent the offseason reloading their wide receiver corps with talent. Brandon Lloyd has acclimated quickly to Josh McDaniels offense and Jabar Gaffney currently projects to start opposite of him. Long time left tackle Matt Light decided to retire, but the rest of the offensive line remains unchanged and former first round pick Nate Solder seems like a capable enough replacement. The Patriots look to employ a committee attack at running back, with Stevan Ridely and Shane Verneer slated to carry the load, and Danny Woodhead contributing on passing down. Their defense wavered between a 4-3 and 3-4 base defense last year, but they appear to be leaning toward a 4-3 base defense for the 2012 season.
Rookies Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower project as starters in their rookie year, but expectations should be kept in check for the youngsters since it usually takes a full season for players to get adjusted to the game speed at the pro level. The defense surrendered nearly 300 yards passing per game last year, but those figures are inflated by teams being forced to throw to keep up with their high scoring offense. Second year man Ras-I Dowling projects to start opposite of Devin McCoutry, with Kyle Arrington likely maning the slot. Their free safety is still up in the air, but a healthy Patrick Chung is a difference maker on every down when healthy. Their defense should improve this season and they have a lot of young talent that can develop into legitimate starters for years to come.
However, that is in an ideal scenario. Their only real proven starters are Vince Wilfork, Brandon Spikes, Jerod Mayo, McCoutry and Chung…the rest of the starters will need to step up and prove themselves this year. The superbowl losers have only gotten better this off season, adding far more talent than they lost; but only because last year’s team was largely devoid of talent. With an infusion of talent and potentially key players returning from injury, the Patriots should be early favorites to make a return trip to the Super bowl.
The Bills
A return to a 4-3 defense should be a welcomed change by coaches and fans alike. The additions of Pro Bowl end Mario Williams and pass rushing specialist Mark Anderson will be maximized in a 4-3 alignment, while allowing Marcell Dareus to return to his college position inside next to Kyle Williams. With plenty of depth and talent along the D-line, they very well could be the next team to adopt the Giants pass rushing model. Their secondary has only gotten better with the addition of first rounder Stephon Gilmore, who is being installed as a starter right away. If Gilmore breaks out in a big way and Aaron Williams starts to play up to his second round pedigree the Bills could have one of more formidable secondaries in the NFL. Their offense, on the other hand, hasn’t undergone many changes and defenses can expect more of the same from them in 2012. The locked up Stevie Johnson on a five year deal, but so far this offseason he has been unable to practice due to his lingering groin injury. Their wide receiver corps is talented, but none of them have separated themselves from the pack as deserving of a starting spot. CJ Spiller is finally showing his talents as a potential change of pace back, and while Fred Jackson is locked in starter, it’s not out of the question that a committee attack could emerge as the season progresses.
Two of the biggest storylines to follow this season will be the performances of Vince Young and rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn. Glenn was projected by some as a guard at the NFL level, but he does the requisite size to play tackle at 6’6 and 350 pounds. Former Bills tackle Demetress Bell’s unreasonably high contract demands forced the Bills to look elsewhere for Ryan Fitzpatrick’s blindside protector, and any struggles by Glenn will have major consequences for his quarterback. Fitzpatrick has proven himself a tough, scrappy player, but ultimately one that is undersized and injury prone. In the past, lingering injuries have hampered his effectiveness and a lack of an adequate backup has forced him to play hurt. It’s because of this he has turned in uneven performances with strong starts and poor finishes to each of the past two seasons.
With Vince Young now in the fold, the coaching staff should be able to rest their quarterback if needed without necessarily sacrificing a win. Young is still plenty talented and in the eyes of some he is a legitimate starter who never really got a fair shake in Tennessee. There is a good chance that Young will start a few games this year, and his natural fit into the Bills offensive scheme has some wondering if Young could end up stealing Fitzpatrick’s job all together. The Bills should be a better team this year based on a defensive scheme change alone, but how healthy their key players stay will be the deciding factor behind their success in 2012. Firmly behind the Patriots, they will battle the Jets for second place in the AFC East and wild card spot in the playoffs.
The Jets
The impact of the acquisition of Tim Tebow cannot be understated; he brings more than just the Tebow army and unbelievable media coverage. He brings leadership that can fracture a locker room, a good natured attitude and ridiculous work ethic that can either motivate or generate envy, an unprecedented start to a football career and an unparalleled pedigree of excellence in the game of football. How the quarterback saga will play out remains a mystery but we do know that the Jets are going to try to do something that no one ever has in the modern NFL: utilize a two quarterback system. No modern NFL team has ever pulled their starter in favor of another quarterback for a specific situation or a set of plays. They have done it for running backs or wide receivers in order to execute a wildcat play, but it is otherwise largely unprecedented in the NFL. The only notable instance is back in 2007, when the Cardinals used Tim Rattay as their designated redzone quarterback; but only because starter Kurt Warner was playing with a broken thumb and he couldn’t clutch the football properly to throw fade passes. Rattay went went 3 for 3 on competions that year, with all of his pass attempts resulting in a touchdown. Quarterbacks aside, the rest of the team remains mostly unchanged, as a good team tends to. They have added rookie Stephen Hill and former Raider Chaz Schilens over the offseason, but neither should be relied upon to contribute regularly in their first season. Hill is still raw as a receiver and the talented Schilens has never been able to stay healthy throughout his career. Their offensive and defensive lines have been largely unchanged, aside of the addition of rookie phenom Quinton Coples.
One of the most naturally talented ends to come along since Mario Williams, he offers an extraordinary size speed combination and they plan to bookend him with second year man Muhammad Wilkerson. Their safety position has been overhauled with additions of free agents Laron Landry and Yeremiah Bell, who should prove to be difference makers when (if?) they are on the field. While the Tebow Sanchez saga is likely to be the biggest story of 2012, the most important one is how new OC Tony Sparano plans to overhaul the offensive game plan with the current roster.
Behind starter Shonn Greene, they don’t have a back capable to carrying the load for a full season, but despite this lack of depth Sparano is still planning to have a smash mouth, run heavy offensive identity. Tebow is currently playing at 250 pounds, the heaviest he ever has, with the expectation that he will be utilized in the run game on a regular basis. How Sparano uses his creativity to aid their mundane rush attack that averaged just 3.8 yards a carry last year (they were outrushed by their division rival Patriots) will be the most important part of their offensive game plan. Without the proper personnel, Sparano has a challenge ahead of him this season and if the offense continues to falter the blame will all fall to him. The Jets are expected to battle the Bills for second place in their division and a potential wildcard spot in the playoffs.
The Dolphins
Joe Philbin has his work cut out for him. More likely than not Miami has another losing season coming in 2012. They are in a brutal division, they play a handful of playoff teams and they are undergoing major changes offensively and defensively. Holdover starters like Matt Moore and Reggie Bush will be called upon to step up and lead the inexperienced and unproven offense in 2012, something that neither have much of a track record of doing. Additions Chad (OchoCinco) Johnson and Legedu Nanee are both expected to be major contributors offensively, but if their free agency status is any indication of their remaining talent they are unlikely to provide defenses with any real challenge. New OC Mike Sherman will be tasked with revamping the current offense into a west coast system, one that relies on timing and accuracy.
How quickly players get acclimated and whether or not they ever prosper in the system is a legitimate concern, but everything will be geared towards supporting their future starter Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill is a former college receiver who started only 19 games at quarterback for Texas A&M, so he will be a project for Sherman and Philbin to develop into a starter for next season. Defensively, the Dolphins are in much better shape with major pieces of their newly former 4-3 defense already in place.
Players like Cameron Wake and Karlos Dansby will get the opportunity to return to their former positions and a simplified gap structure of the 4-3 scheme should help bolster the run defense immediately. The addition of Richard Marshall should more than make up for the loss of Yeremiah Bell, since he can play corner, nickle, and free safety competently. The Dolphins defense was respectable last year, ranking 15th in total yards and tying Detroit and Denver 10th in sacks, so they will probably match their 2011 performance or better it. As the dog of the AFC East, it will take some time and major development on the part of the offense before they are able to compete with the rest of their division for a playoff spot. The good news for them is that Tom Brady is 34 and has only three years left on his contract, so just as Brady is starting to slow down Tannehill (23) should start to hit his prime.
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