The Browns are starting over at the quarterback position…again. First round pick Brandon Weeden is projected to become the Browns 16th starting quarterback of the past 13 years. They are expecting the 29 year old former baseball player to step in and make an immediate impact on an offense that has historically struggled to stay out of the leagues bottom decile. They gave him a serious weapon in Trent Richardson, who has been mentioned by many draft analysts in the breathe as Adrian Peterson, but they did nothing to improve one of the league’s most underwhelming receiving corps. Despite having a strong offensive line protecting him, Weeden is going to be working without a net in his first season and his success will likely hinge on his defenses ability to keep the games close. As a power running team without great talent, size or speed at the receiver position, their defense will be tasked with keeping the putting their pirate...err...rookie quarterback in a position to win games with careful play.
They simply won’t have the firepower or experience under center to mount big comebacks against opponents in 2012. The good news is that the defense is solidifying into a trustworthy group featuring plenty of young playmakers on their way up. Jabaal Sheard broke out in a big way in 2011 and Phil Taylor was starting to earn more snaps before his freak pectoral injury he sustained while weight lifting. D’Qwell Jackson proved that he can be a premier talent at inside linebacker when healthy, and he was awarded with a 5 year extension after racking up 145 tackles in 2011. Joe Haden and TJ Ward are both young and rounding into Pro Bowl form, and they are two of the biggest playmakers that Steve the Pirate...err...Weeden will be relying on in 2012.
As much hope as there is for the Browns in 2012 and as exciting as the additions of Weeden and Richardson are, expectations should be kept in check. They play in one of the toughest divisions against three legitimate playoff teams. Their power run game will be put to the test against the Steelers and Ravens and a lack of playmakers on offense will make their offense one dimensional. A trial by fire season often sets players up to fail, but his advanced age doesn’t permit him with the luxury of taking the time to develop his game. Weeden is either going to sink or swim in the NFL, and the weight belt of a bad receiving corps will do him no favors. The Browns may be picking another quarterback much sooner than they will expect to.
The Bengals
Marvin Lewis enters 2012 with a single season left on his contract and he may finally be tiring of owner/GM Mike Brown. The penny pinching Brown has been an albatross around Lewis’ neck each of the previous nine years of his tenure, so Lewis could play hardball when it comes to contract negotiations, especially considering the potential for the Bengals to build on last season’s success. Andy Dalton put up a very respectable 3,400 passing yards and posted a 20-13 TD, which are fantastic overall statistics for a rookie. Even though he seemed to fade down the stretch last year, as defenses started to figure out his tendencies, he gives the Bengals offense a major building block to rely on as the offense continues to change. In a lateral move, Cedric Benson was replaced with former Patriots running back Benjarvus Green-Ellis and they are planning an even timeshare between BGE and 2011 second stringer Bernard Scott. The Bengals will continue to rely on their Pro Bowl duo of Dalton and AJ Green to keep their offense going and to keep games competitive.
It will be more important for Dalton to step forward again as a quarterback this year because their run game is unlikely to have a greater impact in 2012 with middling talents sharing the backfield. However, Dalton does stands to benefit from a young defense that is another year older and another year better. Their young defensive line is loaded with athletic talent and former early round picks, and their linebacker corps returns at full strength with the resigning of Manny Lawson. Should pass rushers like Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap finally start to live up to expectations, they can have a legitimately dangerous front seven, which would really help out their worrisome secondary. Pro Bowler Leon Hall is coming off an Achilles’ injury, rookie first round pick Dre Kirkpatrick is coming along slowly and Nate Clements, Terence Newman and Jason Allen have all shown signs of decline. Free safety Reggie Nelson is the lone bright spot in their secondary, coming off an solid 73 tackle, four interception 2011 season, but the strong safety position is totally up in the air.
The defense should continue to improve and they should put their young signal called in better positions to win in 2012. In any other division, the Bengals would be a trendy pick as a playoff contender, but in the AFC North they will likely have to win at least 11 games to earn playoff consideration. They will be a very young team battling annual superbowl contenders full of veteran nucleus players like the Ravens and Steelers, something that makes them the underdog in 2012. However, it takes only one of those teams to struggle due to injury for the Bengals to find themselves in the thick of the wildcard race. It will ultimately come down to how well Dalton manages the games and how quickly he continues to develop. NFL Films guru Greg Cosell has stated that the Bengals “have a few doubts” about Dalton’s upside, citing concerns about his arm strength limitations. The Bengals OC Jay Gruden has openly denied any such concern and recently A.J. Green has even stepped forward in support of his quarterback. While the whole team needs to show more cohesion and play up to their expectations, there is no question that the success of the Bengals will hinge entirely on the play of their young signal caller.
The Steelers
Things are changing in Pittsburgh, even if they are in less conspicuous ways. They forced the retirement of their offensive coordinator Bruce Arians, who (to no one’s surprise) stayed retired less than a week before the Colts came knocking on his door. He was replaced by the fiery former headcoach of the Chiefs, Todd Haley, who will look to revamp the entire offense. The ownership has publicly stated that they expect the Steelers to return to their traditional “ground and pound” rushing attack, likely in an effort to prolong the career of their franchise quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. It’s an unusual strategy in the eyes of some, since their starting running back Rashard Mendenall seems like a lock to being the season on the PUP list and nearly all of their offensive talent is comprised of the young dynamo receiving duo of Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown. Haley is known as a motivator that doesn’t hesitate to bump heads with players, but his antics may not be appreciated by players that are proven starters and former Super Bowl champions.
Haley, and the run game, will benefit from the additions of rookies Mike Adams and David DeCastro, two players that automatically upgrade what has been an inconsistent and underwhelming offensive line over the past few seasons. Haley will kick start the running game in Pittsburgh and (should) try to take the pressure of his increasingly brittle signal caller. Roethlisberger has been averaging 40 sacks a season since entering the league and the cumulative effect of his sandlot style of quarterbacking is starting to take its toll. The offense will be more important than ever in 2012 due to the teams aging defense. Nose tackle Casey Hampton is returning for a torn ACL and his backups are not proven replacements yet, even though Hampton was in a rotation with Steve McClendon last year. James Farrior was dropped by the Steelers and they don’t have a named replacement just yet; an atypical event for a team that drafts well in advance of position need. Keenan Lewis, Cortez Allen and Curtis Brown are going to be counted on to operate opposite of Ike Taylor and to help support a secondary that is getting very long in the tooth.
The Steelers still have one of the best linebacking corps in the league, a historically effective system and a hall of famer coaching them, but the defense can ill afford to have its performance drop off if they really expect to make another playoff run in 2012. They play in a tough division and they have matchups against the Jets, Eagles, Giants, Chargers and Cowboys in 2012. The Steelers remain a solid team and a safe bet to see the post season, but making a deep run is starting to become a serious challenge for them. Roethlisberger is never healthy late into the season, and their embarrassing loss to the Tim Tebow led Broncos last season exemplifies why a change in offensive philosophy is crucial if they want to complete for another title.
The Ravens
The offseason loss of Defensive MVP Terrell Suggs may very well set the tone for the Raven’s 2012 season. Suggs torn his Achilles during a training session (basketball) in late April, and even though he has already undergone the repair surgery and promises to “return by November,” there is a very good chance that he will miss the entire 2012 season. It’s really a devastating loss for a team who lacks pass rushing personnel, and it destroys some of the versatility that the defense had benefited from in recent years. Without Suggs they will be forced to start rookie Courtney Upshaw in his place and they will have to hope that Paul Kruger will be able to replicate some of the production Suggs had as a hybrid player. Also, youngsters like Terrence Cody and Jimmy Smith will be counted on as full time players in 2012 and they will need to mature into reliable players very quickly in order to help keep a defense full of veteran talent from being overworked.
While the defense is chock full of young potential, the offense has nearly all of its key offensive players dealing with extraneous problems. Franchise quarterback Joe Flacco is going into the final season of his rookie deal and he is expecting a lucrative long term extension to be offered sooner than later. They slapped the franchise tag on Pro Bowl running back Ray Rice and he is staying away from the team in an attempt to get a long term extension done. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie is dealing with conditioning issues and he isn’t guaranteed a roster spot unless he shows improvement. While these may seem like minor matters, the complete lack of depth behind these key players makes these matters largely important in what is shaping up to be a very important year for the franchise. The franchise seems uncertain about committing to Flacco after a statistical regression in 2011. Despite having more receiving weapons than ever before, Flacco’s completion percentage dipped and his yards per game plateaued in 2011, leaving some to wonder how much more upside the 27 year old quarterback has left in him.
And while Flacco is reportedly “haunting” the Raven’s training complex in hopes to spur contract talks, Ray Rice is doing his offseason workouts away from the team because he is unhappy with Raven’s use of the franchise tag. Running backs that keep away from the team due to holdout have a well-documented history of returning from a hold out in less than ideal shape, resulting in a subpar performance the following season. Backups Anthony Allen and rookie Bernard Pierce are both poor bets to replace Rice’s production should he holdout or show up less than 100% for the 2012 season. The run game has been the fulcrum of the offense for years and if it struggles in 2011 they Ravens could find themselves in dire straits. The playoff hopes for the Ravens lies completely on their team’s ability to stay healthy for the 2012 season, and so far things are looking grim.
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