The Broncos
The big winners of the Peyton Manning sweepstakes are overhauling their entire offense for the second time in less than a year. After running media sensation and former hero Tim Tebow out of town, they are throwing all of their chips in the Peyton Manning basket and shifting into win now mode. They haven’t exactly gone for broke on the free agent market (they had been admittedly preoccupied with wooing Manning) and are relying on last year’s receiving corps to adapt from catching balls from the leagues least accurate passer to catching them from one of the most precise. The nuances of Manning’s offensive system will take some time for the receivers to get comfortable with but the receiving corps isn’t without talent. Demaryius Thomas talent has ideal size and speed for a number one receiver and Eric Decker is a big target with soft hands. Jacob Tamme came over to Denver with Manning and should be his safety valve on third down. Tamme, Thomas and Decker aside, the rest of the team is lacking offensive weaponry and Manning will be working with a starting running back that isn’t an adept pass catcher for the first time in his career.
The free agency pool for runners wasn’t very deep this year and the Broncos are relying on 30 year old Willis McGahee to carry the load again in 2012. Last year’s backup Lance Ball will battle rookie Ronnie Hillman for third down duties, but HC John Fox’s well documented veteran favoritism makes Ball the favorite for snaps behind McGahee. The Broncos could benefit from Knowshon Moreno’s return from last year's season ending ACL injury, but it appears that the coaching staff has soured on the former first round pick and his roster spot may be in jeopardy. Manning will be responsible for being great and making the offense great, all the while dealing with the continued rehabilitation from the neck injury that knocked him out for the 2011 season. This season is likely to be the most challenging year of his career and early struggles can be expected as he readjusted to NFL game speed. Manning does stand to benefit from an up and coming defense that showed serious potential last year, even if it was erratic week to week. Their defense is a nice mix of young and veteran talent, and DJ William’s suspension aside, the defense is coming back better than it was in 2011. They added corners Tracy Porter and Drayton Florence to replace Andre Goodman, and drafted defensive lineman Derek Wolfe to help reinforce their front four. Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil will continue to make up one of the more dangerous pass rushing duos in the NFL, similar to how Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were in Indianapolis.
It will be crucial for Miller and Dumveril to consistently get after the quarterback because they are the Broncos biggest playmakers and first line of defense protecting their aging secondary. While the Broncos will field a solid team with a legitimate shot at the playoffs, their success will hinge entirely on Manning’s ability to stay healthy since they have no veteran quaterback behind him to sub in. The injury that knocked out one of the NFL’s greatest ironman quarterbacks and ended his Colts career is an unusual one, because it isn’t a question of “if” the injury is going to flare up again, but “when.”
The Chiefs
Chiefs fans rejoiced last year when then HC Todd Haley was given his walking papers and DC Romeo Crennel was named interm headcoach. Crennel responded by handing the Greenbay Packers their first and only loss of the 2011 season the following week. It is hard not to blame Haley for a majority of the Chief struggles in 2011 because as headcoach he was charged with making the hard decisions and he nearly always made them wrong. From keeping starters playing too deep into the preseason to basic depth chart decisions, Haley became the personification of self-destruction as the season progressed. Crennel has been a headcoach before and his experience from Cleveland will undoubtedly help him continue to turn around the Chiefs staggering franchise.
They are only a season removed from being the division champs and a majority of the roster has been maintained or improved since then. Key players will be returning from serious injury, and most of their young roster is another year older and another year wiser. Franchise quarterback Matt Cassel looks 100% healthy after suffering a fracturing his throwing hand in week 10 of last season. Cassel is now 30, squarely in his prime, and he will be the center of attention on the offense in 2012. While they are planning on using run heavy offensive strategy, utilizing their one two punch of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis to tire out defenses, Cassel will have to consistently get the ball to his playmaking wide receivers for the offense to really succeed. Even though Dwayne Bowe is holding up this offseason because he is unhappy with the franchise tag, it’s very likely that the issue will be resolved before training camp breaks. Cassel also has speedster Steve Breaston and second year man Jonathan Baldwin, a physical specimen at 6’4, 230, who has starred in offseason practices as a red zone target.
Starting tight end Tony Moeaki is at full strength after missing last season with a torn ACL and he should be a significant contributor in the passing game this year. The Chiefs added to their offensive line during the offseason, paying big money to free agent tackle Eric Winston and spending a second round pick on guard Jeff Allen. All signs point to the Chiefs running to football this season and they will be one of the few teams built to. First round pick Donatri Poe has elite talent and could very well end up being the next Vince Wilfork. Their whole front seven is highly athletic and, while they lack pass rushers aside from Tamba Hali, they have proven to be quick to the football and opportunistic. Their secondary did lose Brandon Carr to the Cowboys in free agency, but a combination of a healthy Eric Berry and free agent Stanford Routt should help replace his production. All said, the Chiefs are plenty talented and new OC Brian Daboll will have the most talent he has ever had to coach on his hands. If the up and coming OC can add a spark to the offense and their already solid defense continues to develop as they should, the Chiefs have a better than even shot at winning their division.
The Chargers
The Chargers are going for the playoffs or bust in 2012…because their coaches job depends on it. After their disappointing 2011 campaign, Chargers fans are holding their breaths that the Phillips Rivers that had a 7-11 TD ratio in the first eight games doesn’t show up. Rivers has historically had a better second half of the season statistically, but his play was so horrendous that everyone wondered if his poor play was the result from injury. There is no reason to think that Rivers will not return to All Pro form, especially considering the weapons that the Chargers added in free agency. San Diego responded to losing their Pro Bowl receiver Vincent Jackson to the Buccaneers by signing deep threat Robert Meachem and dynamic returner and slot man Eddie Royal.
Neither make up for the 6’5 safety blanket that Jackson provided Rivers, but Meachem is a difference maker on the outside and Royal game breaking speed and elusiveness. Their quick first step and ability to separate will be a major asset for the Chargers since their offensive line is dealing with a couple new starters on the left side of the offensive line. New blindside tackle Jared Gaither is an above average tackle, but one that has had serious back issues in recent history that contributed to his career ending in Baltimore. Meanwhile, new left guard Tyronne Green is an unproven starter but one that has apparently stepped up this offseason and worked on his conditioning at LeCharles Bentley’s O-Line Academy. If their offensive line stabilizes, it would go a long way towards helping Rivers return to Pro Bowl form and Ryan Mathews breakout.
Turner is known for preferring to utilize a true workhouse back versus a committee attack, and they intend to rely on Mathews to carry the load in 2012. The supremely gifted Mathews has the talent to lead the league in rushing but so far hasn’t shown the durability to. The Chargers intended to use Mike Tolbert in short yardage situations in 2012 but he ended up stealing over 100 carries from Mathews last year; partially because Mathews was nicked up and partially because Tolbert proved to be a very reliable 3rd down back. The good news is that between Rivers and Mathews, the Chargers offense has the potential to be much better than it was last year. The better news is that the Chargers defense looks primed to bounce back after a very disappointing 2011 campaign. The Chargers have been solid defensively since Turner took the helm and their mediocre defensive figures posted in 2012 are some of the lowest of Turner’s tenure. They maintained their talented roster and added pass rushers Melvin Ingram and Kendall Reyes with their first two draft picks in hopes to bolster their low sack count. Norv Turner look back on 2011 as a bad dream; they were a franchise with sky high expectations that saw their playoff spot stolen by a team running an offense that hasn’t been used since the 1940s. They have everything to lose in 2012, so expect them to come out guns ablazing this season.
The Raiders
Reggie McKenzie has one of the biggest rebuilding projects in recent memory: resurrecting the biggest underperforming franchise of the past decade. The Raiders have been on the wrong end of every single deal in they have made in this millennia. They drafted Jamarcus Russell first overall in 2007 and he now challenges Ryan Leaf for the title of “Biggest Draft Bust Ever.” They gave gimpy free agent Javon Walker a six year, $55 million deal and he appeared in only 11 games over two season, recording a total of 196 yards and one touchdown. They traded away their 2012 first round and 2013 second round pick for disgruntle Bengals QB Carson Palmer, who is now 32 and has been in statistical decline in the previous years. They even went so far as to set a new record for money paid to a kicker when the handed 34 year Sebastian Janikowski a 4 year, $16 million contract.
They have well known history of underachieving in the modern NFL, and McKenzie and new HC Dennis Allen are going to struggled to turn it around. They inherited a team that didn’t have a pick until the 4th round of the 2012 draft and roster teeming with underperformers and project players. Al Davis had long coveted athletes over football players and had been insistent on building a vertical passing attack for his entire tenure. His infatuation with speed has left them with a roster full of track stars (including their fullback) who will have to operate in new OC Greg Knapps traditionally run heavy offense. It stands to be a poor fit considering Darren McFaddens injury history, an absence of a proven runner behind him, and lack of big bodies on the outside, but their real concern for the offense will be whether franchise quarterback continues to bounce back from his struggles. For those unaware, Palmer has been on the decline for a while now and it is getting harder and harder to ignore it. Palmer missed a majority of the 2008 season with an arm injury and he refused going on the IR in hopes to return that season. He decided against the Tommy John surgery that his surgeon recommended, hoping to let the injury to heal naturally. Why would a player prefer not to have the recommended surgery that his doctor prescribed?
One might argue that the surgery is dangerous, but in reality countless baseball and football players have undergone it and returned to full strength. There is no real good reason for Palmer to have avoided the surgery, other than the most obvious one: money. I am just theorizing here, but it is well known that players placed on IR are given significant pay cuts and receive no bonuses the rest of the season. Since the Bengals included significant performance bonuses into their franchise quarterbacks $118 million dollar contract, Palmer stood to lose a ton of money by going on IR. But by avoiding IR, and the subsequent surgery, he may have ruined his arm for the long term. Palmer was only 29 at the time of the injury and he saw his statistics plateau in 2009, and then regress in 2010 even though the Bengals had moved into a pass first offense that year. In Palmer’s heyday, he was easily considered one of the top five quarterbacks in the league. Three years later, when players like Tom Brady and Drew Brees are breaking numerous historical passing records; Palmer is nowhere near their level of play.
Acquired from the Bengals for a kings ransom (a 2011 1st rounder and a 2012 2nd rounder) last year, he was thrown head first into a new offense and failed to help boost the then 4-2 Raiders to the winning record needed for a playoff berth. While it seems unlikely that the 32 year old signal caller will suddenly return to form it doesn’t meant that he cannot succeed in a run heavy offensive attack. He has some of the fastest receivers in the league to throw to and the Raiders should be able to give defenses nightmares with play-action passes. If Palmer is able to get ahold of the offense and Allen manages to bring more consistency to their defense, the Raiders can be a force to be reckoned with any given week. Unfortunately, a combination of major back office changes, salary cap dumps, and the installation of a new offensive scheme makes them a long shot to make the post season.
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